JLL residential team provides analysis and insights into residential real estate market in Chicago, USA.&nbsp;<br />For more information, please contact Jones Lang LaSalle on +852 3759 0909.

Chicago Real Estate & Residential Market Overview

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Prime Central London – Q3 2026

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<p><strong>Whisper it, but the UK economy might not be in quite as bad shape as we all thought. Despite gloomy headlines, GDP figures continue to surprise on the upside. As we reported in the last</strong> <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/article/the-residential-roundup-october-2">Residential Roundup</a>, <strong>Q2 growth of 0.5 per cent in Q2 followed a revised-upward 0.6 per cent in Q1, making the UK the strongest performer in the G7 in H1. That said, the weaker performance of our fellow G7 members has helped.</strong></p>
<p>Monthly GDP figures usually deserve a healthy pinch of salt, but even those have outperformed, with 0.4 per cent in July and 0.1 per cent in August both above expectations. Growth in the three months to August also outperformed, rising 0.7 per cent over
    the three-month period. As a result, the IMF has upgraded its 2026 forecast for UK GDP from 1.0 per cent in July to 1.3 per cent in its latest update. Remember, that's against a consensus forecast of 1.1 per cent back in January pre-Iran war.</p>
<h2>Budget watch</h2>
<p>We're only days away from the Budget on 28 October and the kite-flying has, so far, been kept in check. Rumours of a lower threshold for the High Value Council Tax Surcharge (the 'Mansion Tax') have been squashed. It would have had most impact in London
    and the South East, where 86 per cent of all sales between &pound;1.5 million and &pound;2 million took place last year.</p>
<p>John Healey has also ruled out aligning Capital Gains Tax (CGT) with income tax. That could have meant residential property rates rising from the current highest rate of 24 per cent to up to 45 per cent. It always looked unlikely, with many economists,
    including some within the Treasury, arguing that further increases would mean fewer sales and a smaller CGT take. Although this could still be one to watch as further tinkering with rates here may not necessarily be off the cards.</p>
<p>That leaves the Your First Home scheme, where we're still waiting on the income and property price thresholds (which matter a lot for the London new homes market), and council house building, which is also expected to get a nod with detail on how Labour's
    affordable housing plan could take shape. We'll report back once we've digested the news from the dispatch box.</p>


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<h2>London's new homes market</h2>
<p>The latest figures from Molior London illustrate the scale of the challenge facing the capital's new homes market, and why the need for buy side support remains critical. To satisfy the Draft London Plan&rsquo;s annual target of 55,000 homes&mdash;let
    alone the government&rsquo;s 88,000 housing need figure&mdash;would mean rates of sale for private homes would need to reach almost 9,000 homes each quarter, a figure we&rsquo;ve only come close to, at the peak in Q1 2015 (8,600 sales). Yet the latest
    quarterly figures from Molior show just 1,440 new homes sold London wide in Q3 2026.</p>
<p>The weakness runs across buyer types, although institutional activity was particularly quiet over the summer, with sales to companies falling to just over 600 homes. Q3 was the third consecutive quarter when there were fewer than 900 sales to individuals.
    It is hoped that Your First Home can replicate Help to Buy, which supported around 1,100 sales a quarter between 2019 and 2022. However, if we are serious about increasing delivery, we&rsquo;ll need to see more buyers return than simply those with
    help from Your First Home.</p>
<p>Molior recorded just over 7,000 private sales and fewer than 7,200 private starts in the first three quarters of 2026. This alignment shows that developers, understandably, will only build homes they know they can sell. Therefore, to increase development
    activity, we&rsquo;ll need a similar uptick in buyers. There are currently 32,000 private homes under construction, but we&rsquo;ll need to see a considerable increase in activity to get anywhere close to the level required under the Draft London
    Plan. With larger residential developments taking two to three years to build, we&rsquo;d need the number of homes under construction to almost triple to meet the Plan's required 35,000 private completions a year.</p>

<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1792565287/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/resi-roundup-16-oct-slide2.png" />
<h2>Prime Central London</h2>
<p>Higher debt costs and uncertainty around politics and economic policy impacts more discretionary markets most significantly. This has continued to hamper activity and the potential for price growth across central London. That said, buyers are still purchasing
    homes in Prime Central London, with more than 450 sales in the quarter&mdash;in line with Q3 last year&mdash;and supported by a strong July of almost 200 sales. But those buying are either waiting for something special to hit the market&ndash;evidenced
    by the two deals we saw earlier this year at or above &pound;200 million&ndash;or are looking for a deal. This means most buyers remain price sensitive, with achieved prices down 1.4 per cent over the quarter and 7.2 per cent on a year ago, but the
    pace of decline has been easing for a few quarters now, with both figures an improvement on Q2 (-2.3 per cent and -7.7 per cent).</p>
<p>The top end has been the most resilient, with the number of homes sold above &pound;10 million up 4 per cent annually, the only price bracket to record growth in sales volumes, and prices in that bracket falling 6.5 per cent, the smallest decline of any
    segment. Houses have also fared better than Flats, with average prices down 4.9 per cent compared with 7.8 per cent.</p>
<p>Wealthy international buyers haven't left, but many are choosing to rent while the UK's economic and political outlook remains uncertain. This helped push the annual number of homes let at more than &pound;3,000 a week up 14 per cent year-on-year. Lettings
    above &pound;100,000 a year, which are exempt from the Renters' Rights Act, rose 22 per cent annually, and monthly lettings in that bracket have run 27 per cent above the January to April average since the Act came into force on 1 May.</p>
<p>The market below &pound;2 million, making up 68 per cent of Q3 sales, faces different pressures. This sector of the prime market is driven largely by domestic buyers, but with Moneyfacts reporting average two- and five-year fixed rates close to 6 per
    cent in October we expect demand there to remain subdued through year-end, or the point at which rates settle and start to become more attractive.</p>
<p style="font-size:14px;">JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</sup></p>

The Residential Roundup - 16 October

Whisper it, but the UK economy might not be in quite as bad shape as we all thought. Despite gloomy headlines, GDP figures continue to surprise on the upside.

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<article>
    <h2>30 Years of Buy-to-Let: From Innovation to Evolution</h2>
    <p>Thirty years of buy-to-let mortgages have reshaped the UK rental market. Their launch in late September 1996 addressed a pressing problem. Rental demand was climbing sharply while available stock struggled to keep pace. The barrier? Homeowners couldn't
        legally sublet on residential mortgages, and commercial lending offered only restrictive ten-year terms with punishing interest rates. The sector's investment potential remained largely untapped.</p>
    <p>Then lenders introduced mortgages designed specifically for landlord investors, marking the first time individuals, not just companies, could secure financing based on a property's rental income potential rather than solely their personal financial
        circumstances.
    </p>
    <p>The landscape changed again from 2015 when George Osborne, then chancellor, introduced sweeping changes. The government scaled back individual landlords' ability to deduct mortgage interest from their taxes and over time introduced more punitive levels
        of stamp duty targeting landlords.</p>
    <p>Since buy-to-let mortgages were introduced in 1996, the number of households renting privately across England has risen by more than 150 per cent &ndash; equivalent to an additional 277 private rented homes per day. Higher mortgage rates and affordability
        pressures in the sales market have almost meant that renters are staying in rented homes for longer, exacerbating demand in a sector already under pressure.</p>
    <h2>How the Renters' Rights Act Is Reshaping London's Market</h2>
    <p>Nearly five months on from the implementation of the Renters' Rights Act, JLL's Residential Rental Index&mdash;which monitors pricing trends and agent perspectives across Finsbury Park, Wood Green, Nine Elms, City, Canary Wharf, Greenwich, Stratford
        and Kew&mdash;reveals a market in good health.</p>
    <p>While 75% of residential offices reported a rise in landlord instructions over the past year, new applicant registrations also climbed in half of JLL's tracked locations. Strong demand, particularly during Q3, has meant that 75% of our residential
        offices have reported a decrease in the number of days properties are spending on the market.</p>
    <p>Summer months often command rental premiums however, a couple of factors have underpinned strong growth this quarter. Heightened student demand has been driven by higher university intake and overseas arrivals. Meanwhile, the Renter's Rights Act means
        that tenants able to hand notice on contracts, which previously may not have ended until later in the year, has meant stock has let earlier than usual, leaving dwindling supplies come the busy summer period.</p>
    <p><em>Figure 1: Market Sentiments-3 Months</em></p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/jll-global-olm-np/image/upload/v1792130476/resi/gb/cms/News/Images/market_sentiments.png" />
    <h2>Rents Hit 11-Quarter High</h2>
    <p>JLL's residential offices posted some of their strongest quarterly rental growth figures during Q3 2026, with average rents climbing 2.7% - the highest increase we've seen in 11 consecutive quarters. But this headline figure masks a more complex story
        of how the trends are quietly reshaping market dynamics across the capital.</p>
    <p><em>Figure 2: Q3 Growth</em></p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/30589623/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:400px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
    <p>Quarterly growth varied across locations, ranging from 1% to 4.4%. The City led the charge with the highest quarterly increase at 4.4%, followed by Stratford at 3.7% and Nine Elms at 3.3%. Meanwhile, Canary Wharf saw rental growth rebound from -2.1%
        last quarter to 2.3% this quarter.</p>
    <p>Year-on-year growth hit 4% in Q3 - the best performance in seven consecutive quarters and double last quarter's 2%. Annual growth ranged from 1.4% to an impressive 8.3%. Greenwich topped the list with sub-markets recording growth of 5% or more, followed
        by City and Nine Elms.</p>
    <p>Behind these numbers, the Renters' Rights Act has influenced higher asking rents, particularly in areas like Greenwich. Because the new legislation bans offers in excess of asking price, landlords are setting asking prices higher. This, coupled with
        the usual seasonal uptick in activity and a rise in the number of students looking for homes to rent has supported strong rental growth this quarter.</p>
    <p>The new legislation has also influenced levels of available stock. While some tenants used break clauses to move earlier in the year when demand was quieter, the market experienced a notable shift in inventory patterns. The classic supply squeeze,
        coupled with rising demand across summer, has put upward pressure on rents. Despite these seasonal pressures, the market is adjusting to the new regulatory framework, with landlords adjusting their strategies to maintain portfolio performance.</p>
</article>

London's Residential Rental Market: Strong growth supported by uptick in student demand and seasonal activity

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<h2>UK economy in better shape</h2>
<p>The feel-good factor continued with the Q2 GDP figures, published this week, which showed UK GDP rose by 0.5 per cent in the second quarter, 0.1 per cent higher than forecast. This means the UK saw the highest growth in the G7 in the first half of the
    year. Unfortunately, the outlook for H2 remains more downbeat, but until then it will be seen as a welcome boost in the run up to the Budget.</p>
<h2>More help to buy?</h2>
<p>Labour has promised full details of the Your First Home plan will be released in the October Budget &ndash; now less than four weeks away. However, what we know so far suggests it will enable purchasers in a position to source a 2.5 per cent deposit (alongside
    their buying and moving costs) to borrow an additional 20 per cent from government. Effectively meaning they can approach the market with a 22.5 per cent deposit to secure their first new build home. Like Help to Buy, this 20 per cent loan will be
    interest free for a set period before the government starts to charge interest, with borrowers having to repay the loan on sale. There have been no announcements yet on whether there will be a different deal for London &ndash; remember under Help
    to Buy London buyers could borrow 40 per cent rather than 20 per cent of the purchase price.</p>
<p>Burnham has promised this will be &lsquo;targeted&rsquo;, meaning we&rsquo;re expecting upper price thresholds and/or earning caps determining who can access the new scheme. The level at which these thresholds and caps are set will be fundamental to its
    success, particularly in markets like London where challenges around wage caps set at too low a level are already impacting shared ownership sales.</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/story/3829053/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<h2>So how many new homes could this deliver?</h2>
<p>Help to Buy isn&rsquo;t without its critics, but few will deny that it increased activity in the new homes market, something government needs if it is to deliver more homes at the end of the parliament than the start.</p>
<p>Over its ten-year life, Help to Buy loans were issued for 385,000 properties, of which 82 per cent were for homes bought by first time buyers. With the number of transactions using Help to Buy peaking at more than 55,000 per annum, equivalent to around
    a quarter of all new build sales. Of course these won&rsquo;t all have been additional sales, with a proportion of those who bought arguably still getting onto the housing ladder at some point, albeit possibly buying later.</p>
<p>Setting aside the various yet unanswered questions about the scheme, and assuming common sense prevails on caps and thresholds, eligibility and take up than Help to Buy suggests we could see up to 40,000 more new starts per annum once the scheme is up
    and running. Comparing the number of housing starts in the year post Help to Buy&rsquo;s inception shows a 31 per cent uptick, with a fall in starts of 23 per cent following the scheme winding up back in 2023.</p>
<h2>What about your next home?</h2>
<p>Your First Home bridges the gap for those buyers who have the income to purchase but don't have the means (or access to family support) to raise a deposit. If the scheme provides similar 31 per cent fillip for development, we'd still reach just 170,000
    starts based on current rates, far off the 300,000 let alone the 370,000 target for England.</p>
<p>However, the ongoing challenge of higher mortgage rates will curb enthusiasm and buying power across the market if they persist. Latest figures from the Bank of England show the impact of higher rates on the market, with average fixed rates on all outstanding
    mortgages&mdash;not just new lending&mdash;have risen to 4 per cent, their highest level since 2009 and double the figure five years ago. New lending figures are also being impacted by higher rates and rising uncertainty over the short-term outlook,
    with mortgage approvals falling to a 38-month low in August. The fewer than 55,000 deals approved down 15 per cent year-on-year. Remortgaging activity remains similarly subdued, with home movers unable to benefit from the Your First Home initiative.</p>
<h2>Other news from conference</h2>
<p>The Your First Home plan wasn't the only announcement to come out of the Labour Conference. Amongst a plethora of new plans, Burnham announced Labour's intention to end the triple lock by 2030. Hoping that a new Social Care Pledge will soften the blow
    for pensioners. The downgraded double lock proposes state pensions will rise by the higher of 2.5 per cent or inflation but will be decoupled from earnings. Rumours also persist around the High Value Council Tax Surcharge, with suggestions Healey
    could (and could is doing quite a bit of heavy lifting here) reduce the lower price threshold from &pound;2million to &pound;1.5 million. A move which could double the number of homes within scope.</p><iframe src="https://flo.uri.sh/story/3829570/embed" title="Interactive or visual content" class="flourish-embed-iframe" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="width:100%;height:600px;" sandbox="allow-same-origin allow-forms allow-scripts allow-downloads allow-popups allow-popups-to-escape-sandbox allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation"></iframe>
<h2>Queueing at the Gate(way)</h2>
<p>August marked 12 months since the establishment of the Innovation Unit set up to deal with new build 'high-risk' application. Since its inception median approval times for new build applications have fallen from 43 weeks to 22, with approval rates rising
    from 39 per cent to 92 per cent. Response times are still far off the 12-week target, but the improvement in response time will stand them in good stead as they brace for a flurry of applications in September (August already registered an uptick)
    with applicants keen to submit prior to the introduction of the Building Safety Levy on 1 October. For more information on the Levy please <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/building-safety-levy-guidance/section-1-introduction" target="_blank">click here.</a></p>
<p
    style="font-size:15px;">JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p>
    <p><sup>Disclaimer: &copy; 2026 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property</sup></p>

The Residential Roundup - October 2

Housebuilder share prices rallied this week after the announcement at the Labour Party Conference of the new Your First Home plan, effectively Help to Buy 2.0.

<strong>Housebuilder share prices rallied this week after the announcement at the Labour Party Conference of the new Your First Home plan, effectively Help to Buy 2.0. The UK's largest housebuilder Barratt Redrow saw its share price climb to the highest level since the Middle East conflict began in late February, up 40 per cent from its mid-May lows. This follows similar increases for Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon and Bellway.</strong>

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<p>PRIVACY NOTICE</p>
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<p>Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.</p>
<p>We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes
    your personal data, please view our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.</p>

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<p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p><p><strong>PRIVACY NOTICE</strong></p><p>Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL), together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a leading global provider of real estate and investment management services. We take our responsibility to protect the personal information provided to us seriously.</p><p>Generally the personal information we collect from you are for the purposes of dealing with your enquiry.</p><p>We endeavor to keep your personal information secure with appropriate level of security and keep for as long as we need it for legitimate business or legal reasons. We will then delete it safely and securely. For more information about how JLL processes
    your personal data, please view our&nbsp;<a href="https://www.jll.co.uk/en/privacy-statement" target="_blank">privacy statement</a>.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>

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