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<p>We are please to release the latest JLL housing market forecasts in first half of 2024. Price falls, which we had forecast to see in early 2024 have largely failed to materialise, as more competitive rates entered the market. This means we now expect prices to rise by +2% nationally this year, compared to our previous forecast of -3% made in October 2023.</p><p>Lower value markets are expected to outperform this year. As rates improve, we expect London to lead, with growth in both Central and Greater London expected to be higher than the national average over the five-year forecast period.</p><p>Our research points to city centre markets as the primary driver of growth. The demand for urban living and the projected growth in households propel these markets forward over the five-year forecast period. As cities continue to attract young professionals and lifestyle seekers, the demand for rental properties in central locations is set to remain strong, contributing to the robust market performance.</p><p>More balance appears to be emerging across the rental market, as the gap between tenant demand and landlord instructions reached its lowest level in four years, according to the RICS Residential Market Survey. A net +33 of respondents expect rent rises in the next three months. Though high, this is the lowest reading since 2021. Despite this shift, JLL expects a continued imbalance and anticipates rent increases across all markets year-on-year for the next five-year period. According to our updated forecast, which account for 2024 as an election year, rents are expected to rise by 4.5% nationally in 2024, with growth of 18.8% between 2024 and 2028.</p><p>For more on our updated forecasts please download <a href="https://jll.box.com/s/ah2dmf602p106bio8l3gec6j7hh7pyfo">here</a></p>

JLL Residential Forecasts 2024-2028 update

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Residential Roundup - 1 September

Picking through the array of economic indicators and deciphering what this might mean for the UK economy

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<h2><strong>Q2 2023 Sales Index</strong><br /></h2><p>The JLL Prime Central London Index saw prices fall for the third consecutive quarter.&nbsp; The Q2
   2023 index recorded a quarterly fall of 2.1%, with prices 5.9% down compared with the same period in 2022. Prices are
   now 6.8% lower than
   they were when prices peaked in the third quarter last year.&nbsp; </p><p>The upper echelons of London&rsquo;s prime market are proving more resilient. With prices down 0.8% in the 12 months
   to June 2023 compared with a 6.7% fall in homes priced at under &pound;2 million (likely to be most impacted by
   changes in interest rates).
</p><p>Despite sentiment impacting prices we saw deals agreed (exchanges) increase in an admittedly slow Q1 this quarter,
   with a 28% increase in sales in Q2 2023.&nbsp; With volumes on par with Q2 2022 (down -1.2%). </p><p>Stock levels rose in Q2, with 8.3% more properties on the market than in Q2 2022 and 9.7% more than at the end of the
   first quarter this year. Stock on the market is now at the highest level since the end of Q2 2020. </p><h2><strong>Q2 2023 Lettings Index</strong></h2><p>The uncertainty which is hampering activity in the sales market often has the opposite effect on
   lettings. With households more likely to stay in rented for longer or choosing to rent when delaying their decision
   to buy. Just over half
   (51%) of JLL deals agreed in Q2 2023 were renewals, up from 45% a year ago and 24% in Q2 2021. This was the highest
   rate of renewal since Q2 2020. </p><p>The number of new lets rose this quarter compared with last, up 13%.&nbsp; But the second quarter is usually more
   active than the first. Comparing new lets agreed (excluding renewals) in the second quarter this year with Q2 last
   year showing there were
   18% fewer deals agreed, with the number agreed down 35% compared with the Q2 five-year average.</p><p>This quarter the JLL Prime Central London Index saw rents rise by 1.9%, with rents 5.4% higher than they were at the
   same point a year ago. Small flats (1 and 2 beds) saw this highest annual increase in rents at 6.7% whereas more
   expensive properties
   (&pound;3,000 per week or more) saw a more modest 2.9% annual increase. </p><p>Rents are now 26% higher for one-bedroom flats (which have seen the highest growth) than they were three years ago at
   the end of Q2 2020. With the JLL Prime Central London Rental Index 19.2% higher overall over the last three years.
</p><p>For prospective tenants having to contend with low stock levels there appears to be some respite as we move into the
   summer. Stock levels are starting to increase, albeit off a low base. With the number of rental properties listed to
   let at the end of
   Q2 2023 up 13.8% on the same point in 2022. But volumes remain 55% down on levels we were seeing pre-pandemic in Q2
   2019. </p><h2>All Source: JLL/ LonRes</h2><p><strong>Our JLL Prime Central London Index is based on a &lsquo;basket&rsquo; of properties, valued by JLL at the end
      of each quarter. </strong></p><p><strong>Director of UK Residential Research at JLL, Marcus Dixon, explains: </strong></p><p><em>&ldquo;The implications of stubborn inflation on the UK mortgage market are hampering activity in prime central
      London. While fewer buyers are heavily indebted - almost half buy cash - uncertainty surrounding the short-term
      outlook is impacting prices. </em><em></em></p><p><em>&ldquo;The lettings market remains competitive, stock levels have improved on their 2022 lows but there are still
      more prospective tenants than there are properties. This has resulted in further rent increases this quarter, with
      rents almost 20% higher than they were in 2020.</em><em></em></p><p><em>&ldquo;The lower end of the rental market continues to see a steady stream of (formerly) prospective buyers
      moving across into lettings. With smaller properties, mainly one- and two-bedroom flats, recording the highest
      annual increase in rents, while prices for similar properties are seeing more significant falls than homes in more
      expensive price bands.&rdquo;</em></p>

JLL – Prime Central London (PCL) Index – Q2 2023

The recent rise in interest rates does not impact all sectors of the housing market equally.

Prime Central London (PCL) Index – Q2 2023

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<p><strong>The housing market remains more resilient than many had anticipated. The latest results from the RICS Survey show market conditions remain challenging, with agents still expecting prices to fall in the coming months in response to higher borrowing costs and uncertain market sentiment. But the outlook for the next 12 months remained more positive. </strong></p>
<p><strong>Over the longer term there is a clear commitment from both Labour and the Conservatives to support home ownership. But until we see rates top out, we expect the market to continue to tread water. This means lower levels of activity, but prices will, we expect, remain more resilient as a lack of distress and high levels of equity act as a buffer to more challenging economic conditions. </strong></p>
<h2>The economy</h2>
<p>The outlook for the UK economy is improving, with the IMF upgrading their 2023 UK forecast. Echoing recent announcements from the Bank of England the IMF no longer expects the UK will fall into recession this year, with their latest forecasts expecting
    GDP will rise in 2023. Growth is expected to be modest at +0.4% but reflects a welcome venture into positive territory following the previous -0.3% forecast in April. This improved outlook means the UK no longer sits at the bottom of the list of G7
    economies for 2023, now moving ahead of Germany.</p>
<p>But inflation is still proving stickier than many had hoped. Rates have fallen, with single digit annual increases for the first time since August 2022. It was always anticipated that rates would drop back this month, with the impact of rising energy
    costs priced into rates a year ago, but the 8.7% annual increase remained higher than the Bank of England and many forecasters had anticipated.</p>
<p>Further falls in energy costs in the coming months will help to bring inflation down further, but annual food price inflation remains at 19.1% according to the latest ONS figures.</p>
<p>Core inflation (calculating the rise in costs when energy and food, alcohol and tobacco are stripped out) rose by 6.8% in the year to April, up from 6.2% in March. With the recent increase in five-year swap rates and stubbornly high inflation meaning
    a further rise in Bank Rate at the June MPC appears more likely.</p>
<h2>New development</h2>
<p>Activity in the new homes market remains muted. While schemes on site continue to deliver homes, levels of new starts have dropped and activity in the sector has been more subdued in Q1. The National House Building Council (NHBC) reported new build completions
    fell 7% annually in Q1 2023 but the number of new homes registered to be built fell 40% to less than 28,000. This follows news that new applications in 2022 fell 14% on 2021 levels, now at their lowest level since 2006, according to figures from the
    DLUHC. In London, Molior reports constructions starts down 43% on Q1 2022.</p>
<h2>House prices</h2>
<p>Considering the considerable change that has been thrust upon the UK housing market this year it remains remarkably robust. Activity has dropped back, but we are starting to see the reaction to the initial interest rate and sentiment shock following the
    mini budget recede, as prospective buyers re- enter the market. With time on the market and mortgage approvals all starting to recover from the lows of late 2022 and early 23.</p>
<p>Low levels of unemployment, wage growth (albeit mostly below inflation), and more equity within the market all mean forced sales are less prevalent. But for those who are looking to transact in this market there does need to be some realism about prices
    and additional cost facing purchasers.</p>
<p>The latest Land Registry figures show all regions saw a monthly fall in prices in March, with prices UK wide 1.2% lower than in February, the fourth consecutive monthly fall. Prices are now 2.4% below their November peak but remain 4.1% higher than they
    were a year ago.</p>
<p>After seven consecutive monthly falls the Nationwide reported house prices rose 0.5% in April, but prices dropped back marginally in the latest May figures, down 0.1% month-on-month with prices falling annually by -3.4%, now -4% lower than they were at
    the peak last summer. The Halifax reported at -0.3% fall in April, following a rise of 0.8% the previous month, with prices on par (+0.1%) with April 2022. First time buyer activity is proving more resilient than expected, with a competitive rental
    market driving those who can to buy instead.</p>
<p>Falls in achieved prices show higher rates and rising costs are impacting the housing market, although both activity and prices appear more resilient than many had expected. The latest figures from Rightmove show asking prices rose in May, up 1.8%, higher
    than the usual 1.0% May figure.</p>
<p>Uncertainty over rates appears to have put the brakes on the recovery in mortgage approvals posted in March. Seasonally adjusted figures from the Bank of England showing the number of mortgages approved for house purchase fell by 5%, from 51,500 in March
    to 48,700 in April. The average rate on new mortgages rose to 4.46% in April, up 5 basis points on March figures. Overall borrowers repaid &pound;1.4bn more than was lent in April 2023, which aside from the pandemic was the biggest net repayment on
    record.
</p>
<h2>Rents</h2>
<p>The rental market continues to record near double digit growth in rents on new lets. The Homelet Rental Index showing annual rental growth remains strong at 9.9% across the UK in April 2023, with a current average rent of &pound;1,199, 1.3% higher than
    the March figure. London saw rents rise annually by 11.0%, with average rents on new lets exceeding &pound;2,000 per month. Scotland saw the highest annual increase, with rents on new lets rising 12.1%.</p>
<h2>Global view</h2>
<p>In the US, the Federal Reserve increased its key interest rate by 25 basis points, pushing its benchmark rate to between 5% and 5.25%. This is the tenth time rates have increased since March 2022. Rates could be topping out though with the Fed hinting
    at a pause on further rate rises when they next meet in June.</p>
<p>Singapore has announced a doubling of its Additional Buyer Stamp Duty. Overseas buyers purchasing a property in Singapore will now pay 60% tax on their purchase, with those buying using a trust will pay 65%. Permanent residents buying second homes in
    the city will also pay more.</p>
<h2>What&rsquo;s new from JLL</h2>
<p>Our latest Prime Central London report shows rents rose again in Q1 2023, but prices have dropped 4.3% compared with Q1 2022. Read more <a href="https://residential.jll.co.uk/insights/research/prime-central-london-q1-2023">here </a></p>
<h2>JLL Research | May 2023</h2>
<p>JLL is a leading global professional services firm specialising in real estate and investment management, with $16.6bn annual revenue in 2020, operations in over 80 countries and a global workforce of over 90,000. With over 7,000 employees and 15 offices
    in the UK, we support our investor, developer and occupier clients at every stage of the property lifecycle across both commercial and residential asset classes. This includes land purchase, access to capital, planning, development advisory, leasing,
    building management and sales.</p>
<p>JLL&rsquo;s Residential and Living team consists of over 300 professionals who provide a comprehensive end-to-end service across all residential property types, including social housing, private residential, build to rent, co-living, later living, healthcare
    and student housing.</p>
<p><sup>Disclaimer: <sup>&copy;</sup>2023 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.Data within this report is based on material/sources that are deemed to be reliable and has not been independently verified by JLL. JLL makes no representations or
    warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the whole or any part of the report which has been produced solely as a general guide and does not constitute advice. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any
    form or by any means without prior written consent of JLL. JLL, its officers, employees shall not be liable for any loss, liability, damage or expense arising directly or indirectly from any use or disclosure of or reliance on such report. JLL reserves
    the right to pursue criminal and civil action for any unauthorized use, distribution or breach of such intellectual property.</sup>
</p>

JLL Residential Market Update – May 2023

market-update-may-23

<strong>The housing market remains more resilient than many had anticipated. The latest results from the RICS Survey show market conditions remain challenging, with agents still expecting prices to fall in the coming months in response to higher borrowing costs and uncertain market sentiment.</strong>

The housing market remains more resilient than many had anticipated. The latest results from the RICS Survey show market conditions remain challenging, with agents still expecting prices to fall in the coming months.

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