UK Residential Forecasts 2022 – 2026: Cities will bounce back more strongly than rural area

10 Nov 2021

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    People living preferences and attitudes have changed over the Pandemic. The new way and standard come up which hosing demand has altered. Despite the COVID-9 challenges, the property market recovery in UK comes over earlier than expected, strong house price movement reflecting high levels of demand.

    The global economy is expected to continue its recovery in 2022, there will continue to be strong price growth across all major markets in UK. Cities will bounce back more strongly in terms of price growth and rental growth than rural areas as there continues to be a renewed desire to return to more ‘normal life’. This bounce will particularly be felt in 2022 and 2023.

    Urban growth

    Driven by mortgaged households who have seen high wage growth, housing equity growth over the past decade and can now also access historically low mortgage rates.  Around 10 million of the UK’s 28 million homes fit this profile. Even if a relatively small percentage of these households opt to move, it will fuel a high proportion of short-term demand for a market that is predicted to see around 1.2 million transactions per annum in the coming years.

    Green premium
    JLL expects there will be an increase in demand for more energy efficient, lower carbon sustainable homes over the next five years due to the climate crisis. In 2021 five new lenders entered the green mortgage market. There are now 14 green mortgage lenders in the UK with a total of 26 product offerings, this growing interest will create a green premium for energy efficient homes or a brown discount for poor performers. Our data also shows that urban new builds are by far the most sustainable on the market.

    London & the South East

    Prime Central London is forecast to see particularly strong activity over the next 24 months based on an anticipated return in travel from the world’s high net worth individuals and a severe undersupply of homes for sale and rent. JLL continues to rank London among the global elite cities with the UK Capital scoring particularly highly for its transparency, talent growth and concentration of innovative businesses.

    East of England, Midlands, South West & Wales

    JLL expects Birmingham remains the city which will has the highest house price growth over the next 5 years. Bristol is expected to see the second highest increase in GVA of the major UK cities (15.6%) and highest increase in average weekly earnings (14.7%) over the next five years according to Oxford Economics.

    Northern England

    According to Oxford Economics, Manchester is set to see the highest rate of economic growth of all the major UK cities over the next five years with GVA growth of 16.4%. The rapidly growing technology sector has increased in relevance within Leeds in recent years and this is expected to drive house price and rental growth in the next five years. The South Bank area is viewed as an emerging digital hub, with Leeds Dock in particular tailoring offices towards the tech industry.

    Scotland

    Edinburgh is expected to see among the highest house price growth of the UK’s major cities with the new local plan likely to restrict new housing supply in the Scottish Capital. Demand will continue to outstrip supply driving cumulative house price growth of 26% over the next five years.

    For more insights on the real estate markets and residential properties in the UK, click here or contact JLL International Residential at +852 3759 0909 or irp.hk@ap.jll.com.

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